Real Betis–Lyon

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Real BetisA. Ezzalzouli (assist: C. Bakambu)
35'Real BetisAntony (assist: Marc Roca)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Lyon
9	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
324	Passes	629
252	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 1.57 · Lyon 1.22. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Real Betis 9 · Lyon 10; on target 6 and 3.
Lyon kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Matej Jug, Slovenia→

5.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “Lyon to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Real Betis, 1.22 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,341 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win45.8%

Draw24.1%

Lyon to win30.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score1.57

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lyon concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score1.22

Attack: Lyon score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–09.9%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.