SC Braga–Genk

3–4

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'SC BragaR. Zalazar
45'GenkDaan Heymans (assist: K. Karetsas)
48'GenkY. Sor
59'GenkOh Hyeon-Gyu (assist: Daan Heymans)
71'SC BragaR. Zalazar (assist: R. Horta)
72'GenkY. Medina (assist: K. Karetsas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Genk
20	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	8
12	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
621	Passes	367
555	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 1.56 · Genk 1.21. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots SC Braga 20 · Genk 9; on target 6 and 8.
SC Braga kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Balazs Berke, Hungary→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.0%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “Genk to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for SC Braga, 1.21 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,968 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win46.0%

Draw24.3%

Genk to win29.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — SC Braga win or draw70.3%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Genk win54.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score1.56

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.21

Attack: Genk score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–010.2%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1968 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 112 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.