Aston Villa–Maccabi Tel Aviv

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Aston VillaI. Maatsen (assist: M. Rogers)
59'Aston VillaDonyell Malen (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aston Villa		Maccabi Tel Aviv
14	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
576	Passes	293
524	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aston Villa 1.49 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.11. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Aston Villa 14 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 6; on target 8 and 3.
Aston Villa kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Julian Weinberger, Austria→

4.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “Aston Villa to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Aston Villa, 1.11 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,938 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aston Villa to win46.4%

Draw25.1%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win28.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aston Villa score1.49

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.11

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%1–011.4%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.