Sturm Graz–Nottingham Forest

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sturm Graz		Nottingham Forest
3	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	2
1	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
400	Passes	534
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sturm Graz 1.32 · Nottingham Forest 1.58. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Sturm Graz 3 · Nottingham Forest 9; on target 2 and 2.
Nottingham Forest kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Mykola Balakin, Ukraine→

5.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “Nottingham Forest to win”. Second comes “Sturm Graz to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Sturm Graz, 1.58 for Nottingham Forest.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,797 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sturm Graz to win32.2%

Draw23.8%

Nottingham Forest to win44.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sturm Graz score1.32

Attack: Sturm Graz score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.58

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sturm Graz's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–29.1%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.