FK Crvena Zvezda–Lille

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

85'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Arnautovic (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		Lille
11	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
40%	Possession	60%
353	Passes	551
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 1.73 · Lille 1.55. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 11 · Lille 11; on target 3 and 3.
Lille kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

John Brooks, England→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “Lille to win” at 35.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 1.55 for Lille.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,005 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win42.6%

Draw22.4%

Lille to win35.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score1.73

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 118% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lille concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lille score1.55

Attack: Lille score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.8%2–18.7%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.