Red Bull Salzburg–GO Ahead Eagles

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'Red Bull SalzburgY. Vertessen (assist: Aleksa Terzić)
80'Red Bull SalzburgAleksa Terzić (assist: M. Kjærgaard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Red Bull Salzburg		GO Ahead Eagles
17	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
429	Passes	555
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Red Bull Salzburg 1.90 · GO Ahead Eagles 1.50. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Red Bull Salzburg 17 · GO Ahead Eagles 10; on target 8 and 2.
GO Ahead Eagles kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Giorgi Kruashvili, Georgia→

5.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.4%: “Red Bull Salzburg to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Red Bull Salzburg, 1.50 for GO Ahead Eagles.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,574 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Red Bull Salzburg to win47.4%

Draw21.6%

GO Ahead Eagles to win31.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Red Bull Salzburg score1.90

Attack: Red Bull Salzburg score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.50

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Red Bull Salzburg's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.2%2–19.0%1–27.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.