FC Basel 1893–FCSB

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'FCSBȘtefan Târnovanu · red card
19'FC Basel 1893X. Shaqiri (penalty)
57'FCSBD. Olaru (assist: A. Pantea)
73'FC Basel 1893X. Shaqiri
88'FC Basel 1893I. Salah (assist: X. Shaqiri)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Basel 1893		FCSB
25	Shots	14
9	Shots on target	7
16	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
588	Passes	281
495	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Basel 1893 1.40 · FCSB 1.72. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FC Basel 1893 25 · FCSB 14; on target 9 and 7.
FC Basel 1893 kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Juxhin Xhaja, Albania→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.4%: “FCSB to win”. Second comes “FC Basel 1893 to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for FC Basel 1893, 1.72 for FCSB.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,607 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Basel 1893 to win31.8%

Draw22.8%

FCSB to win45.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Basel 1893 score1.40

Attack: FC Basel 1893 score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: FCSB concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FCSB score1.72

Attack: FCSB score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Basel 1893's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.3%1–29.1%0–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.