FC Midtjylland–Celtic

3–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'FC MidtjyllandMartin Erlić (assist: M. Gogorza)
35'FC MidtjyllandM. Gogorza
41'FC MidtjyllandFranculino Djú
81'CelticR. Hatate (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Midtjylland		Celtic
24	Shots	5
12	Shots on target	3
18	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	9
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
433	Passes	296
355	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Midtjylland 1.51 · Celtic 1.58. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FC Midtjylland 24 · Celtic 5; on target 12 and 3.
FC Midtjylland kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Nenad Minaković, Serbia→

5.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Celtic to win”. Second comes “FC Midtjylland to win” at 37.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for FC Midtjylland, 1.58 for Celtic.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,287 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Midtjylland to win37.0%

Draw23.2%

Celtic to win39.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.51

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celtic score1.58

Attack: Celtic score 63% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%1–28.6%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.