Malmo FF–Panathinaikos

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

85'PanathinaikosF. Djuricic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Malmo FF		Panathinaikos
12	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
589	Passes	439
497	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Malmo FF 1.24 · Panathinaikos 1.37. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Malmo FF 12 · Panathinaikos 11; on target 2 and 4.
Malmo FF kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Nick Walsh, Scotland→

4.19

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “Panathinaikos to win”. Second comes “Malmo FF to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Malmo FF, 1.37 for Panathinaikos.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,632 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malmo FF to win34.2%

Draw25.5%

Panathinaikos to win40.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Malmo FF score1.24

Attack: Malmo FF score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.37

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Malmo FF concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.37 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%0–110.4%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.