Utrecht–FC Porto

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'UtrechtMiguel Rodríguez (assist: Souffian El Karouani)
66'UtrechtV. Barkas · red card
66'FC PortoBorja Sainz (assist: Deniz Gül)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Utrecht		FC Porto
11	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	8
6	Shots inside the box	14
7	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
25%	Possession	75%
215	Passes	625
145	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Utrecht 0.92 · FC Porto 1.79. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Utrecht 11 · FC Porto 19; on target 3 and 8.
FC Porto kept the ball more (75%).

Referee

John Beaton, Scotland→

4.60

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.3%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.92 for Utrecht, 1.79 for FC Porto.
The highest double chance value is 80.7% (X2 — draw or FC Porto win).
These values were computed from 2,025 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Utrecht to win19.3%

Draw22.4%

FC Porto to win58.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Utrecht score0.92

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Porto score1.79

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–112.3%0–210.7%1–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.