AS Roma–Plzen

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'PlzenP. Adu (assist: M. Jedlicka)
22'PlzenCheick Souaré (assist: Sampson Dweh)
54'AS RomaPaulo Dybala (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AS Roma		Plzen
20	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
10	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
68%	Possession	32%
511	Passes	244
436	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AS Roma 2.08 · Plzen 0.85. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots AS Roma 20 · Plzen 6; on target 8 and 2.
AS Roma kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Halil Umut Meler, Türkiye→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.2%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for AS Roma, 0.85 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 85.5% (1X — AS Roma win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,071 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AS Roma to win66.2%

Draw19.3%

Plzen to win14.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AS Roma score2.08

Attack: AS Roma score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score0.85

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.85 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–011.6%1–011.4%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.