GO Ahead Eagles–Aston Villa

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 October 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Aston VillaE. Guessand
42'GO Ahead EaglesM. Suray (assist: C. Twigt)
61'GO Ahead EaglesM. Deijl (assist: J. Kramer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		Aston Villa
5	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	13
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	10
5	Offsides	1
30%	Possession	70%
234	Passes	524
180	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.22 · Aston Villa 1.79. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 5 · Aston Villa 18; on target 3 and 7.
Aston Villa kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Filip Glova, Slovakia→

8.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “Aston Villa to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.79 for Aston Villa.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,219 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win26.4%

Draw22.5%

Aston Villa to win51.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,836 of 3,546 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	0

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.22

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aston Villa score1.79

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%1–29.6%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.