Feyenoord–Aston Villa

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 2 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'Aston VillaE. Buendía (assist: B. Kamara)
79'Aston VillaJ. McGinn

Match statistics

Match statistics
Feyenoord		Aston Villa
19	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
8	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
339	Passes	530
290	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Feyenoord 1.63 · Aston Villa 1.15. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Feyenoord 19 · Aston Villa 6; on target 8 and 3.
Aston Villa kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Rade Obrenovič, Slovenia→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.9%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “Aston Villa to win” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Feyenoord, 1.15 for Aston Villa.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,181 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Feyenoord to win48.9%

Draw23.9%

Aston Villa to win27.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Feyenoord score1.63

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aston Villa score1.15

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–010.5%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.