Nottingham Forest–FC Midtjylland

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 2 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'FC MidtjyllandO. Diao (assist: Mads Bech Sørensen)
22'Nottingham ForestD. Ndoye (assist: M. Gibbs-White)
24'FC MidtjyllandMads Bech Sørensen (assist: Martin Erlić)
88'FC MidtjyllandValdemar Byskov (assist: D. Osorio)
90'Nottingham ForestC. Wood (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nottingham Forest		FC Midtjylland
22	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
10	Corners	8
3	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
466	Passes	287
402	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nottingham Forest 1.67 · FC Midtjylland 1.45. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Nottingham Forest 22 · FC Midtjylland 8; on target 9 and 5.
Nottingham Forest kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Willy Delajod, France→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Nottingham Forest to win”. Second comes “FC Midtjylland to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Nottingham Forest, 1.45 for FC Midtjylland.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,746 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nottingham Forest to win43.2%

Draw23.0%

FC Midtjylland to win33.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nottingham Forest score1.67

Attack: Nottingham Forest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.45

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Nottingham Forest's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%2–18.9%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.