Red Bull Salzburg–FC Porto

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 25 September 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'FC PortoWilliam (assist: Martim Fernandes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Red Bull Salzburg		FC Porto
14	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	8
2	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
364	Passes	479
292	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Red Bull Salzburg 1.06 · FC Porto 1.87. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Red Bull Salzburg 14 · FC Porto 15; on target 3 and 3.
FC Porto kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Vassilis Fotias, Greece→

3.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.6%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Red Bull Salzburg, 1.87 for FC Porto.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (X2 — draw or FC Porto win).
These values were computed from 1,499 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Red Bull Salzburg to win21.6%

Draw21.9%

FC Porto to win56.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Red Bull Salzburg score1.06

Attack: Red Bull Salzburg score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.06 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals FC Porto score1.87

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Red Bull Salzburg concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–110.3%1–110.3%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.