GO Ahead Eagles–FCSB

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 25 September 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'FCSBD. Miculescu (assist: D. Alibec)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		FCSB
17	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	7
7	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
73%	Possession	27%
622	Passes	224
543	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.35 · FCSB 1.81. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 17 · FCSB 8; on target 7 and 6.
GO Ahead Eagles kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

Kristo Tohver, Estonia→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “FCSB to win”. Second comes “GO Ahead Eagles to win” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.81 for FCSB.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win29.0%

Draw22.3%

FCSB to win48.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.35

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FCSB concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FCSB score1.81

Attack: FCSB score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.0%1–29.4%0–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.