FK Crvena Zvezda–Celtic

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 24 September 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.5% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'CelticKelechi Iheanacho (assist: B. Nygren)
65'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Arnautović (assist: F. Tebo Uchenna)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		Celtic
16	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
419	Passes	497
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 1.61 · Celtic 1.58. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 16 · Celtic 8; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

Radu Marian Petrescu, Romania→

6.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “Celtic to win” at 37.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 1.58 for Celtic.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,558 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win39.3%

Draw22.8%

Celtic to win37.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score1.61

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 124% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.61 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Celtic score1.58

Attack: Celtic score 71% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.58 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.1%2–18.4%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.