Malmo FF–Ludogorets

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 24 September 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.3% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'LudogoretsPetar Stanić (penalty)
23'LudogoretsE. Bile
78'Malmo FFL. Johnsen (assist: T. Ali)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Malmo FF		Ludogorets
10	Shots	21
5	Shots on target	10
5	Shots inside the box	14
7	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
579	Passes	387
499	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Malmo FF 1.16 · Ludogorets 1.17. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Malmo FF 10 · Ludogorets 21; on target 5 and 10.
Malmo FF kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Manfredas Lukjancukas, Lithuania→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “Malmo FF to win” at 36.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Malmo FF, 1.17 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,744 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malmo FF to win36.2%

Draw27.3%

Ludogorets to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Malmo FF score1.16

Attack: Malmo FF score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ludogorets score1.17

Attack: Ludogorets score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Malmo FF concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.17 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%0–111.7%1–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.