Samsunspor–Panathinaikos

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 28 August 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.9% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Samsunspor		Panathinaikos
10	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Samsunspor 1.27 · Panathinaikos 1.17. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Samsunspor 10 · Panathinaikos 7; on target 3 and 2.
Samsunspor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Irfan Peljto, Bosnia & Herzegovina→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Samsunspor to win”. Second comes “Panathinaikos to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Samsunspor, 1.17 for Panathinaikos.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,708 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Samsunspor to win39.1%

Draw26.6%

Panathinaikos to win34.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,123 of 5,759 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Samsunspor score1.27

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.17

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.17 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–011.5%0–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.