Lech Poznan–Genk

1–5

HT 1–4

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 August 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'GenkPatrik Hrošovský (assist: J. Steuckers)
19'Lech PoznanF. Jagiełło (assist: M. Ishak)
25'GenkPatrik Hrošovský (assist: J. Steuckers)
33'GenkB. Heynen (assist: M. Smets)
40'GenkHyeon-gyu Oh (assist: Y. Sor)
48'GenkM. Gurgul

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lech Poznan		Genk
14	Shots	19
7	Shots on target	11
0	Shots inside the box	0
7	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lech Poznan 1.56 · Genk 1.33. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Lech Poznan 14 · Genk 19; on target 7 and 11.
Genk kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Donatas Rumsas, Lithuania→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Lech Poznan to win”. Second comes “Genk to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Lech Poznan, 1.33 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,847 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lech Poznan to win43.1%

Draw23.9%

Genk to win32.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,540 of 6,250 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lech Poznan win or draw67.1%

12 — any result other than a draw76.1%

X2 — draw or Genk win56.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.9%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lech Poznan score1.56

Attack: Lech Poznan score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.33

Attack: Genk score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Lech Poznan's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%1–09.0%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1847 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 106 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.