UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Drita–FCSB

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'FCSBJ. Cisotti (assist: D. Miculescu)
18'FCSBD. Miculescu (assist: Daniel Bîrligea)
52'DritaVeton Tusha
68'DritaR. Broja · red card
85'FCSBD. Politic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Drita		FCSB
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Drita 0.61 · FCSB 2.01. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Drita 0 · FCSB 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Sandro Schärer, Switzerland→

3.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.6%: “FCSB to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.61 for Drita, 2.01 for FCSB.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (X2 — draw or FCSB win).
These values were computed from 1,389 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Drita to win10.5%

Draw18.9%

FCSB to win70.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Drita score0.61

Attack: Drita score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: FCSB concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FCSB score2.01

Attack: FCSB score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Drita concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.01 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

0–114.9%0–214.7%0–39.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.