UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Utrecht–Servette FC

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 August 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'UtrechtV. Jensen
74'UtrechtV. Jensen (assist: D. Murkin)
80'Servette FCAblie Jallow (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Utrecht		Servette FC
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Utrecht 2.21 · Servette FC 1.07. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Utrecht 0 · Servette FC 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Chris Kavanagh, England→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “Utrecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.21 for Utrecht, 1.07 for Servette FC.
The highest double chance value is 82.4% (1X — Utrecht win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,552 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Utrecht to win63.4%

Draw19.0%

Servette FC to win17.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Utrecht score2.21

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Servette FC's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Servette FC score1.07

Attack: Servette FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.8%2–09.2%1–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.