UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Wolfsberger AC–PAOK

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 August 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: 28 Black Arena, Klagenfurt am Wörthersee

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

115'PAOKM. Camara

Match statistics

Match statistics
Wolfsberger AC		PAOK
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Wolfsberger AC 1.28 · PAOK 1.43. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Wolfsberger AC 0 · PAOK 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Orel Grinfeeld, Israel→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “Wolfsberger AC to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Wolfsberger AC, 1.43 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,116 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wolfsberger AC to win34.1%

Draw25.0%

PAOK to win41.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,399 of 5,395 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Wolfsberger AC score1.28

Attack: Wolfsberger AC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAOK score1.43

Attack: PAOK score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Wolfsberger AC concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.43 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%0–19.9%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.