UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

FC Midtjylland–Fredrikstad

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 14 August 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'FC MidtjyllandM. B. Sorensen
17'FC MidtjyllandPaulinho (assist: M. Gogorza)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Midtjylland		Fredrikstad
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Midtjylland 2.36 · Fredrikstad 1.11. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FC Midtjylland 0 · Fredrikstad 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Julian Weinberger, Austria→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.6%: “FC Midtjylland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for FC Midtjylland, 1.11 for Fredrikstad.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — FC Midtjylland win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,369 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Midtjylland to win65.6%

Draw17.9%

Fredrikstad to win16.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,059 of 1,563 predictions were correct (67.8%). Accuracy record →

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Midtjylland score2.36

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Fredrikstad's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fredrikstad score1.11

Attack: Fredrikstad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.6%2–08.7%1–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.