UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

PAOK–Wolfsberger AC

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 7 August 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAOK		Wolfsberger AC
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAOK 1.87 · Wolfsberger AC 1.00. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots PAOK 0 · Wolfsberger AC 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Morten Krogh, Denmark→

4.61

yellows per match

0.39

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.0%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for PAOK, 1.00 for Wolfsberger AC.
The highest double chance value is 79.8% (1X — PAOK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,110 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAOK to win58.0%

Draw21.7%

Wolfsberger AC to win20.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAOK score1.87

Attack: PAOK score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Wolfsberger AC concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wolfsberger AC score1.00

Attack: Wolfsberger AC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–010.9%1–110.3%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.