UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

CFR 1907 Cluj–SC Braga

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 7 August 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dr. Constantin Rădulescu, Cluj Napoca

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'SC BragaJean-Baptiste Gorby (assist: Fran Navarro)
30'CFR 1907 ClujS. Sinyan
50'SC BragaJean-Baptiste Gorby

Match statistics

Match statistics
CFR 1907 Cluj		SC Braga
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CFR 1907 Cluj 1.60 · SC Braga 1.13. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots CFR 1907 Cluj 0 · SC Braga 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Elcin Masiyev, Azerbaijan→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “CFR 1907 Cluj to win”. Second comes “SC Braga to win” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for CFR 1907 Cluj, 1.13 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,760 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CFR 1907 Cluj to win48.7%

Draw24.1%

SC Braga to win27.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,111 of 4,488 predictions were correct (47.0%). Accuracy record →

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CFR 1907 Cluj score1.60

Attack: CFR 1907 Cluj score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.13

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: CFR 1907 Cluj concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–010.7%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.