UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Hamrun Spartans–Maccabi Tel Aviv

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 5 August 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

71'Hamrun SpartansN. Koffi (penalty)
79'Maccabi Tel AvivR. Revivo
90'Maccabi Tel AvivE. Madmon

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamrun Spartans		Maccabi Tel Aviv
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamrun Spartans 0.46 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 3.22. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Hamrun Spartans 0 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Kristo Tohver, Estonia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 89.4%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 7.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.46 for Hamrun Spartans, 3.22 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 97.1% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv win).
These values were computed from 1,192 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamrun Spartans to win2.9%

Draw7.7%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win89.4%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 271 of 308 predictions were correct (88.0%). Accuracy record →

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamrun Spartans score0.46

Attack: Hamrun Spartans score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score3.22

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hamrun Spartans concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 3.22 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

0–314.0%0–213.0%0–411.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.