UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round

AEK Larnaca–Celje

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 31 July 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'AEK LarnacaY. Chacon (assist: K. Angielski)
67'AEK LarnacaA. Garcia (assist: Y. Chacon)
88'CeljeMario Kvesić (assist: A. Chidi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Larnaca		Celje
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Larnaca 1.77 · Celje 1.12. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots AEK Larnaca 0 · Celje 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Chris Kavanagh, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.0%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “Celje to win” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for AEK Larnaca, 1.12 for Celje.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,185 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Larnaca to win53.0%

Draw22.7%

Celje to win24.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Larnaca score1.77

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Celje's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celje score1.12

Attack: Celje score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.12 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.7%1–010.2%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.