UEFA Europa League · 1st Qualifying Round

FK Partizan–AEK Larnaca

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 17 July 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Partizan		AEK Larnaca
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Partizan 1.24 · AEK Larnaca 1.36. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FK Partizan 0 · AEK Larnaca 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Gustavo Correia, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.0%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “FK Partizan to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for FK Partizan, 1.36 for AEK Larnaca.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,439 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Partizan to win34.5%

Draw25.6%

AEK Larnaca to win40.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Partizan score1.24

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.24 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals AEK Larnaca score1.36

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%0–110.4%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.