UEFA Europa League · 1st Qualifying Round

AEK Larnaca–FK Partizan

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 10 July 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

67'AEK LarnacaE. Cabrera (assist: Waldo Rubio)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Larnaca		FK Partizan
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Larnaca 1.73 · FK Partizan 0.98. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AEK Larnaca 0 · FK Partizan 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

Jacob Karlsen, Denmark→

3.18

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.2%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for AEK Larnaca, 0.98 for FK Partizan.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — AEK Larnaca win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,439 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Larnaca to win55.2%

Draw23.1%

FK Partizan to win21.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Larnaca score1.73

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Partizan score0.98

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.98 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–011.9%1–111.0%2–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.