Paris Saint Germain–Arsenal

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 1.32 · Arsenal 1.11. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

D. Siebert→

4.58

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “Arsenal to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.11 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,817 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win41.8%

Draw26.5%

Arsenal to win31.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw68.3%

12 — any result other than a draw73.5%

X2 — draw or Arsenal win58.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score1.32

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.32 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Arsenal score1.11

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–012.0%0–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2817 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 140 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.