Bayern München–Paris Saint Germain

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 6 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Paris Saint GermainO. Dembele (assist: K. Kvaratskhelia)
90'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: A. Davies)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayern München		Paris Saint Germain
18	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	7
13	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	5
1	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
573	Passes	301
499	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayern München 2.19 · Paris Saint Germain 1.64. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bayern München 18 · Paris Saint Germain 15; on target 6 and 7.
Bayern München kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

J. Pinheiro→

4.67

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “Paris Saint Germain to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.19 for Bayern München, 1.64 for Paris Saint Germain.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,484 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayern München to win50.6%

Draw20.0%

Paris Saint Germain to win29.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayern München score2.19

Attack: Bayern München score 90% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.19 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score1.64

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.64 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–18.5%1–17.5%2–27.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.