Atletico Madrid–Arsenal

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'ArsenalV. Gyökeres (penalty)
56'Atletico MadridJ. Alvarez (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Arsenal
18	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
505	Passes	480
420	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 1.10 · Arsenal 1.28. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Atletico Madrid 18 · Arsenal 11; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

D. Makkelie→

3.39

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

129

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “Atletico Madrid to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Atletico Madrid, 1.28 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,949 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win32.0%

Draw26.9%

Arsenal to win41.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.10

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arsenal score1.28

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%0–112.3%1–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.