Paris Saint Germain–Bayern München

5–4

HT 3–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 28 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (penalty)
24'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (assist: D. Doué)
33'Paris Saint GermainJ. Neves (assist: O. Dembele)
41'Bayern MünchenM. Olise (assist: A. Pavlović)
45'Paris Saint GermainO. Dembele (penalty)
56'Paris Saint Germain

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Bayern München
12	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	8
10	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
371	Passes	504
313	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 1.94 · Bayern München 1.77. On the pitch: 5-4.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 12 · Bayern München 10; on target 5 and 8.
Bayern München kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Scharer→

4.36

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “Bayern München to win” at 36.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.77 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,466 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win42.9%

Draw21.0%

Bayern München to win36.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

K. Kvaratskhelia (assist: A. Hakimi)

58'Paris Saint GermainO. Dembele (assist: D. Doué)

65'Bayern MünchenD. Upamecano (assist: J. Kimmich)

68'Bayern MünchenL. Díaz (assist: H. Kane)

12	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 113 of 165 predictions were correct (68.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw63.9%

12 — any result other than a draw79.0%

X2 — draw or Bayern München win57.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.0%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (57.0%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score1.94

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.94 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Bayern München score1.77

Attack: Bayern München score 94% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.77 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–18.2%2–18.2%1–27.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2466 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 133 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.