Atletico Madrid–Barcelona

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 14 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

4'BarcelonaLamine Yamal (assist: Ferran Torres)
24'BarcelonaFerran Torres (assist: Dani Olmo)
31'Atletico MadridA. Lookman (assist: Marcos Llorente)
79'BarcelonaE. Garcia · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Barcelona
15	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	8
8	Shots inside the box	9
7	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
29%	Possession	71%
282	Passes	699
202	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 1.59 · Barcelona 1.67. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Atletico Madrid 15 · Barcelona 15; on target 5 and 8.
Barcelona kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

C. Turpin→

3.37

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

104

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “Atletico Madrid to win” at 37.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Atletico Madrid, 1.67 for Barcelona.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win37.1%

Draw22.5%

Barcelona to win40.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.59

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Barcelona's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Barcelona score1.67

Attack: Barcelona score 81% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.9%1–28.5%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.