Real Madrid–Bayern München

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 7 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 42%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'Bayern MünchenL. Díaz (assist: S. Gnabry)
46'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: M. Olise)
74'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (assist: T. Alexander-Arnold)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Bayern München
20	Shots	20
9	Shots on target	8
12	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	9
8	Corners	11
1	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
454	Passes	493
386	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 1.87 · Bayern München 1.98. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Real Madrid 20 · Bayern München 20; on target 9 and 8.

Referee

M. Oliver→

3.86

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

139

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “Real Madrid to win” at 37.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for Real Madrid, 1.98 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,610 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win37.4%

Draw20.6%

Bayern München to win41.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score1.87

Attack: Real Madrid score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.87 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Bayern München score1.98

Attack: Bayern München score 88% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–27.8%1–17.7%2–17.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.