Sporting CP–Arsenal

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 7 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'ArsenalK. Havertz (assist: G. Martinelli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Arsenal
11	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
405	Passes	510
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 1.18 · Arsenal 1.11. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Sporting CP 11 · Arsenal 8; on target 5 and 4.
Arsenal kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

D. Siebert→

4.63

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “Arsenal to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Sporting CP, 1.11 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,617 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win38.0%

Draw27.6%

Arsenal to win34.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score1.18

Attack: Sporting CP score 70% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.18 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Arsenal score1.11

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–012.3%0–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.