Bayern München–Atalanta

4–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (penalty)
54'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: J. Stanišić)
56'Bayern MünchenL. Karl (assist: L. Díaz)
70'Bayern MünchenL. Díaz (assist: L. Karl)
86'AtalantaLazar Samardžić (assist: Mario Pašalić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayern München		Atalanta
25	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	8
15	Shots inside the box	10
7	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
70%	Possession	30%
859	Passes	351
801	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayern München 2.52 · Atalanta 1.21. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Bayern München 25 · Atalanta 14; on target 8 and 8.
Bayern München kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

B. Bastien→

4.09

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.0%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.52 for Bayern München, 1.21 for Atalanta.
The highest double chance value is 83.2% (1X — Bayern München win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,582 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayern München to win66.0%

Draw17.2%

Atalanta to win16.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	4

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayern München score2.52

Attack: Bayern München score 87% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Atalanta's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atalanta score1.21

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.2%3–17.7%2–07.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.