Liverpool–Galatasaray

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'LiverpoolD. Szoboszlai (assist: A. Mac Allister)
51'LiverpoolH. Ekitike (assist: Mohamed Salah)
53'LiverpoolR. Gravenberch
62'LiverpoolMohamed Salah (assist: F. Wirtz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Liverpool		Galatasaray
32	Shots	4
16	Shots on target	1
22	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	11
6	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
528	Passes	317
445	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Liverpool 1.93 · Galatasaray 1.21. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Liverpool 32 · Galatasaray 4; on target 16 and 1.
Liverpool kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

P. Raczkowski→

5.55

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “Galatasaray to win” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Liverpool, 1.21 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,742 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Liverpool to win54.4%

Draw21.5%

Galatasaray to win24.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Liverpool score1.93

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Galatasaray score1.21

Attack: Galatasaray score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.8%2–19.8%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.