Barcelona–Newcastle

7–2

HT 3–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 March 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'BarcelonaRaphinha (assist: Fermín)
15'NewcastleA. Elanga (assist: L. Hall)
18'BarcelonaMarc Bernal (assist: Gerard Martín)
28'NewcastleA. Elanga (assist: H. Barnes)
45'BarcelonaLamine Yamal (penalty)
51'BarcelonaFermín

Match statistics

Match statistics
Barcelona		Newcastle
18	Shots	8
13	Shots on target	5
16	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
457	Passes	267
399	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Barcelona 2.62 · Newcastle 1.21. On the pitch: 7-2.
Shots Barcelona 18 · Newcastle 8; on target 13 and 5.
Barcelona kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

F. Letexier→

4.00

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.9%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.62 for Barcelona, 1.21 for Newcastle.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (1X — Barcelona win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Barcelona to win67.9%

Draw16.4%

Newcastle to win15.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

56'BarcelonaR. Lewandowski (assist: Raphinha)

61'BarcelonaR. Lewandowski (assist: Lamine Yamal)

72'BarcelonaRaphinha

9	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Barcelona win or draw84.3%

12 — any result other than a draw83.6%

X2 — draw or Newcastle win32.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.4%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (57.0%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Barcelona score2.62

Attack: Barcelona score 83% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Newcastle's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Newcastle score1.21

Attack: Newcastle score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Barcelona's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.0%3–17.9%2–07.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2861 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 142 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.