Manchester City–Real Madrid

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 17 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'Manchester CityB. Silva · red card
22'Real MadridVinícius Júnior (penalty)
41'Manchester CityE. Haaland
90'Real MadridVinícius Júnior (assist: A. Tchouameni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester City		Real Madrid
22	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	7
14	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	7
9	Corners	6
2	Offsides	3
47%	Possession	53%
484	Passes	549
444	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester City 1.64 · Real Madrid 1.45. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Manchester City 22 · Real Madrid 14; on target 8 and 7.

Referee

C. Turpin→

3.39

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

101

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Manchester City to win”. Second comes “Real Madrid to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Manchester City, 1.45 for Real Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester City to win42.4%

Draw23.1%

Real Madrid to win34.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester City score1.64

Attack: Manchester City score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Madrid score1.45

Attack: Real Madrid score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Manchester City concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.45 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%2–18.9%1–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.