Arsenal–Bayer Leverkusen

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 17 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'ArsenalE. Eze (assist: L. Trossard)
63'ArsenalD. Rice

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arsenal		Bayer Leverkusen
21	Shots	9
12	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	10
10	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
383	Passes	535
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arsenal 1.56 · Bayer Leverkusen 0.93. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Arsenal 21 · Bayer Leverkusen 9; on target 12 and 2.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

D. Makkelie→

3.44

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

124

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.5%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Arsenal, 0.93 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (1X — Arsenal win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,593 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arsenal to win52.5%

Draw24.7%

Bayer Leverkusen to win22.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arsenal score1.56

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score0.93

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.3%1–111.7%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.