Sporting CP–Bodo/Glimt

5–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 17 March 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 2.13 · Bodo/Glimt 1.01. On the pitch: 5-0.

Referee

S. Scharer→

4.36

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.13 for Sporting CP, 1.01 for Bodo/Glimt.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,116 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win63.4%

Draw19.4%

Bodo/Glimt to win17.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sporting CP win or draw82.8%

12 — any result other than a draw80.6%

X2 — draw or Bodo/Glimt win36.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.4%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.9%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score2.13

Attack: Sporting CP score 66% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.13 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.01

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.01 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–19.9%2–09.8%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2116 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 120 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.