Bodo/Glimt–Sporting CP

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Bodo/GlimtS. Fet (penalty)
45'Bodo/GlimtO. Didrik Blomberg
71'Bodo/GlimtK. Høgh (assist: J. Hauge)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Sporting CP
10	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
507	Passes	534
449	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 1.33 · Sporting CP 1.63. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 10 · Sporting CP 9; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

I. Kruzliak→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “Bodo/Glimt to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Bodo/Glimt, 1.63 for Sporting CP.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,102 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win31.5%

Draw23.5%

Sporting CP to win45.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.33

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.33 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Sporting CP score1.63

Attack: Sporting CP score 66% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.63 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–29.2%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.