Paris Saint Germain–Chelsea

5–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Paris Saint GermainB. Barcola (assist: J. Neves)
28'ChelseaM. Gusto (assist: E. Fernandez)
40'Paris Saint GermainO. Dembele
57'ChelseaE. Fernandez (assist: Pedro Neto)
74'Paris Saint GermainVitinha (assist: K. Kvaratskhelia)
86'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Chelsea
9	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
587	Passes	419
518	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.15 · Chelsea 1.21. On the pitch: 5-2.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 9 · Chelsea 9; on target 8 and 4.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Hernandez→

3.50

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.2%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “Chelsea to win” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.15 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.21 for Chelsea.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,648 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win59.2%

Draw19.8%

Chelsea to win20.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

90'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (assist: A. Hakimi)

14	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw79.1%

12 — any result other than a draw80.2%

X2 — draw or Chelsea win40.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.8%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.15

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Chelsea's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Chelsea score1.21

Attack: Chelsea score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.21 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–19.7%1–18.8%2–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2648 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 131 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.