Bayer Leverkusen–Arsenal

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 March 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'Bayer LeverkusenRobert Andrich (assist: Álex Grimaldo)
89'ArsenalK. Havertz (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		Arsenal
10	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
442	Passes	522
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 1.08 · Arsenal 1.32. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 10 · Arsenal 6; on target 3 and 2.
Arsenal kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

H. U. Meler→

5.13

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “Bayer Leverkusen to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.32 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,574 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win30.9%

Draw26.7%

Arsenal to win42.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.08

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arsenal score1.32

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%0–112.4%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.