Atletico Madrid–Tottenham

5–2

HT 4–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 10 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Atletico MadridMarcos Llorente (assist: J. Alvarez)
14'Atletico MadridA. Griezmann
15'Atletico MadridJ. Alvarez
22'Atletico MadridRobin Le Normand (assist: A. Griezmann)
26'TottenhamP. Porro (assist: Richarlison)
55'Atletico MadridJ. Alvarez (assist: A. Griezmann)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Tottenham
11	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
489	Passes	355
416	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 2.10 · Tottenham 0.85. On the pitch: 5-2.
Shots Atletico Madrid 11 · Tottenham 11; on target 7 and 5.
Atletico Madrid kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Gozubuyuk→

4.05

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for Atletico Madrid, 0.85 for Tottenham.
The highest double chance value is 85.5% (1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,841 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win66.4%

Draw19.1%

Tottenham to win14.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

76'TottenhamD. Solanke (assist: P. Porro)

15	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw85.5%

12 — any result other than a draw80.9%

X2 — draw or Tottenham win33.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.1%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score2.10

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tottenham score0.85

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.5%1–011.2%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2841 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 141 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.