Atalanta–Bayern München

1–6

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Tuesday, 10 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Bayern MünchenJ. Stanišić (assist: S. Gnabry)
22'Bayern MünchenM. Olise (assist: D. Upamecano)
25'Bayern MünchenS. Gnabry (assist: M. Olise)
52'Bayern MünchenN. Jackson (assist: L. Díaz)
64'Bayern MünchenM. Olise (assist: A. Davies)
67'Bayern München

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atalanta		Bayern München
11	Shots	25
3	Shots on target	13
8	Shots inside the box	18
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
31%	Possession	69%
293	Passes	688
228	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atalanta 1.38 · Bayern München 2.17. On the pitch: 1-6.
Shots Atalanta 11 · Bayern München 25; on target 3 and 13.
Bayern München kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

E. Eskas→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.7%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “Atalanta to win” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Atalanta, 2.17 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,563 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atalanta to win24.3%

Draw20.0%

Bayern München to win55.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

J. Musiala (assist: N. Jackson)

90'AtalantaMario Pašalić (assist: Nikola Krstović)

11	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Atalanta win or draw44.3%

12 — any result other than a draw80.0%

X2 — draw or Bayern München win75.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.0%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atalanta score1.38

Attack: Atalanta score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score2.17

Attack: Bayern München score 86% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Atalanta's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.3%1–18.3%0–26.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2563 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 127 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.