Club Brugge KV–Atletico Madrid

3–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.9% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Atletico MadridJ. Alvarez (penalty)
45'Atletico MadridA. Lookman (assist: A. Griezmann)
52'Club Brugge KVR. Onyedika (assist: N. Tresoldi)
60'Club Brugge KVN. Tresoldi (assist: M. Diakhon)
79'Atletico MadridJ. Ordonez (own goal · assist: Marcos Llorente)
89'Club Brugge KV

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Atletico Madrid
17	Shots	13
10	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
650	Passes	484
567	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 1.27 · Atletico Madrid 1.38. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Club Brugge KV 17 · Atletico Madrid 13; on target 10 and 4.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

G. Nyberg→

3.43

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “Club Brugge KV to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Club Brugge KV, 1.38 for Atletico Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,435 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win34.9%

Draw25.3%

Atletico Madrid to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

C. Tzolis (assist: R. Onyedika)

5	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,613 of 7,010 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV win or draw60.2%

12 — any result other than a draw74.7%

X2 — draw or Atletico Madrid win65.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.3%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score1.27

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.27 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.38

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%0–110.1%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2435 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 138 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.