Bodo/Glimt–Inter

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'Bodo/GlimtS. Fet (assist: K. Høgh)
30'InterPio Esposito (assist: Carlos Augusto)
61'Bodo/GlimtJ. Hauge (assist: K. Høgh)
64'Bodo/GlimtK. Høgh (assist: O. Didrik Blomberg)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Inter
8	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
452	Passes	607
365	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 1.26 · Inter 1.99. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 8 · Inter 15; on target 6 and 4.
Inter kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

D. Siebert→

4.62

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.6%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “Bodo/Glimt to win” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Bodo/Glimt, 1.99 for Inter.
The highest double chance value is 78.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,349 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win24.3%

Draw21.1%

Inter to win54.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.26

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.26 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Inter score1.99

Attack: Inter score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.99 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–29.7%1–19.4%0–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.